Hassan Khalil, publisher of Al Akhbar, described the situation as follows: “In Lebanon it’s never over for anyone. You cannot write off anyone or anything.” Al Akhbar is a left leaning newspaper that supports those opposed to the recently deposed government of Saad Hariri. (Thanks to the New York Times for using this quote in their most recent piece on Lebanon).
The origins of this most recent conflict can be traced back to the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri, father of Saad. But should we be surprised that tensions have flared up again? It was always going to be this way. So, what next?
To understand Lebanon, one has to realize that first it is not really a country in the sense of a western-style nation state. It is more of an amalgamation of factions--primarily religious factions--who have chosen to come together to form some semblance of governance. The biggest threat to stability in Lebanon is not the sectarian nature of its politics—although, I would say it does often threaten Lebanon’s stability—but the very fact that the central government does not hold a monopoly on power, aka FORCE.
Some would argue it never has. Lebanon has always had sovereignty issues, whether it was interference by Syria, Iran, France, or Israel. This foreign interference has interrupted any forward progress toward a sovereign Lebanon. But some events operate as beacons of hope, possibilities for change.
The 2005 assassination (the six year anniversary just around the corner) of Rafik Hariri looked as if we would witness a turning point in Lebanese politics. The Lebanese citizens that came out in droves to protest the assassination were fed up with intervention by foreign entities. The protests were enough to force the Syrian military to leave.
But, in 2006, indicative of the central government’s lack of control, Hezbollah instigated a brief war with Israel. In Hezbollah’s calculation, they knew the Lebanese government could not side with Israel and any war with Israel would only bring them more political capital no matter the outcome. They were right. All the central government could do was to beg for calm and cessation of violence. The whole exercise showed Hezbollah was big enough to hold Lebanon hostage; proving the central government could do nothing to contain Hezbollah.
Hezbollah was rocked by the war with Israel, but their stock rose exponentially. With money from Iran and Syria, they were able to quickly rebuild most of what had been destroyed. Something the central government had been unable to do. In 2008, drunk with power Hezbollah made another strategic calculation. The central government had attempted to wield some power by announcing they would shutdown Hezbollah’s communications. Hezbollah basically said, “Go ahead, but you’ll have a war on your hands.”
From May 6th to 21st street battles raged throughout Beirut and other major cities. These battles were between militias controlled by the different factions within Lebanese politics. The Army stayed out for fear of splitting their forces based along sectarian lines. Violence ended with the Doha Agreement which gave opposition groups—including Hezbollah--more power in parliament.
Hezbollah as a political force continued to grow. The current crisis is a manifestation of that growth, which threatens rule of law and justice for the assassination of Rafik Hariri. By derailing the attempts of the international tribunal investigating Hariri’s assassination, Hezbollah is setting a dangerous precedent in Lebanon. They are worried about having members named as co-conspirators in the investigation. So, instead of facing the consequences they successfully forced the dissolution of government and threaten violence if their demands are not met. After all, they have the power to do so.
In the short term, Hezbollah will continue to gain power both politically and militarily. Najib Miqati, the new Prime Minister, will be their man in parliament. Iran and Syria will be empowered by their proxy’s gain and the US and its allies in Lebanon—including Israel--will assuredly have egg on their face. Justice will not prevail and we may never learn who was really behind Rafik Hariri’s assassination, although based on Hezbollah’s claims since the beginning of the investigation one can easily think they were involved.
Tension will remain high for some time to come. Until the central government is able to gain a monopoly of power and force within the country in order to ensure the faithful execution of the rule of law, these situations will continue to arise. At this point all out war like we saw during their 15 year civil war remains unlikely.
The long term ramifications are much harder to predict. An empowered Hezbollah could overstep its bounds and face a steady decline, but I doubt that. As long as Iran continues to be the lone voice for Palestinians and Hezbollah remains an Iranian proxy (which will continue), Hezbollah will continue to reap the benefits of their position—against Israel and the US and for the Palestinians. Lebanon will continue to be the battlefield for the covert/proxy war between Iran and Syria on one side and the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel on the other. Yes, I put Saudi Arabia and Israel together on one side; their hatred for one another is a rouse. I don’t feel like the conflict will spread to neighboring countries; Egypt and Tunisia’s issues are of an entirely different making.
This could be an attempt by Iran to distract the P5+1. Some say the 2006 War between Hezbollah and Israel was just that; an attempt to take attention away from Iran’s nuclear program. Or Iran could attempt to mediate the situation in a separate bid to engender goodwill, thus buying them time for their nuclear program. That’s probably a stretch, but with Iran anything is a possibility. The fact they are funding Hezbollah (which is an Iranian creation) would more than likely eliminate them as an impartial arbiter.
Three things have to happen in order to prevent things like this from continuing to occur. First, and probably most difficult, we have to find a solution to the Israel-Palestinian impasse. It will be a tough mountain to climb, but reaching this goal will eliminate much of the fuel for Hezbollah’s—and by proxy Iran’s—meteoric rise. Second, we have to recognize Hezbollah—the same goes for Hamas—as a legitimate political force with a significant following. Their involvement in any solution would give it creditability, without their blessing any agreement will be doomed. Finally, rule of law has to be imperative in any future Lebanese state. Reliance on militias and sectarian organizations to settle disputes in Lebanon will only serve to deepen the crisis. As a nation, they have to come together and actually take steps toward a state governed by rule of law.
Lebanon is a vibrant cosmopolitan nation, where under the surface tensions run supreme. We all have to work together to ensure that there will be no repeat of the 15 year civil war. A strong commitment to the goals above by all sides will be the only way to a favorable solution.
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