Egyptian Chess Match

It’s hard to follow the situation in Egypt without emotion.  The last few days were spent glued to my television and computer.  But it is in these situations that cooler heads prevail. 

Egypt is on the brink of revolution—if not already there.  Mubarak, the 30 year dictator, has refused to step down, while the people have refused to leave the streets until he does.  Something has to give.

All the while, international response has been remarkably muted.  President Obama has been seen as less than enthusiastic about supporting demonstrations against Mubarak.  As disappointing as this is—the tepid response from the White House—one has to realize how strategically important Egypt is.  It is a vital national interest to the United States; a key ally in the US’s Middle East policy.  Stability is essential.

On the other hand, the US has the opportunity to be on the right side of history in the Middle East for the first time in many years.  The longer Obama takes to decide on which side he stands, the longer he gives the impression he stands with Mubarak.  President Carter’s inability to recognize the Shah of Iran’s failures and imminent downfall hurt us 30 years ago; we can ill afford to make the same mistake in Egypt. 

But, I understand Obama’s hesitation.  Events on the ground in Egypt don’t lend themselves clear conclusions, except that Mubarak has to go.  No clear leadership apparatus has emerged from among the protesters.  No clear indicator of the new government’s make-up.  So it’s difficult for Obama and his advisers to formulate a message. 

Obama also has to contend with other regional allies who could be threatened by their own internal opposition.  Even tacit support by the US of the Egyptian protests could threaten stability in the region.  Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar all face serious opposition to the ruling parties or monarchs.  Of even greater immediate concern is the security of the US’s biggest ally in the region—Israel.  Will the protests and the ensuing unrest threaten to unravel the positive relationship between Egypt and Israel?  Will further protests throughout the region force a new approach by Israel’s neighbors? 

Calling on democratic reforms in the region could give anti-US groups political power.  The last time the US called on a government to hold elections, Hamas took Gaza.  The old adage, “Be careful what you wish for,” comes to mind.  It doesn’t help that Mubarak has been playing into those fears by telling US administrations he’s keeping out the Islamists. 

But, this situation bears some parallels to 1978-79 Iran.  We remained blind to the weight and momentum of the anti-Shah protests.  President Carter even went so far as to call the Shah a beacon of stability and progress.  Our inability to recognize the writing on the wall cost us an opportunity to build a relationship with the Islamic Republic; all because we were afraid of upsetting the Shah. 

So, therein lies the problem, politics—both global and domestic—is, like my friend says, “a chess match.”  Except in this case, each piece is important, with known and unknown potential, full of misconceptions, fraught with pitfalls based on those misconceptions, and with perpetually changing roles and positions. 

If Obama “stays the course,” we’ll lose the battle for the Arab street—Muslim, Christian, secular, religious.  Another colleague said his response is a lot like asking a “woman who’s been beaten by her husband for 30 years to accept him back, because he’s sorry and promises to reform.”  Not such a good plan to build rapport. 

That being said President Obama has to do two things.  First, lend support to the movement—all they need to know is that their movement for democracy has his moral support.  Second, Obama needs a re-evaluation of the US’s Middle East policy.  What kind of message are we trying to send?  Unfortunately, rethinking our message is easier said than done. 

Needless to say, the Egyptian movement towards democracy is going to happen whether we support it or not.  The question is, will we be along for the ride?