As I said in my previous piece on Egypt, we must calm our emotions. Situations like the one we see there require us—those on the outside, at least—to take a very dispassionate approach to analyzing the facts on the ground. Again, that’s easier said than done.
How can we not be moved by the fight for freedom and democracy we are witnessing in Tahrir Square? Many of us wish we could be there alongside the protesters fighting the evils of tyranny and dictatorship. The passion of the protesters is laudable; after 30 years under the Mubarak regime they’ve earned the right to scream, shout, and bang on metal barriers. Mubarak, not unlike the Shah of Iran in 1979, has been unable to recognize the writing on the wall—literally and figuratively. The people want him gone and he should listen.
But what next? Will their struggles be over? As I said early on in the protest, “the easy part is the revolution.” If our struggle in Iraq is any indicator, Egyptians have a long way to go before reaching normalcy. The difference, however, is that the Egyptian movement is organic—it’s by the people, not through foreign interference.
Organic or not, the people in Tahrir Square will face an uphill battle to bring Egypt back to the position they envision. If their perseverance over the last eleven days is any indication, they’re up to the task.
In the short term, they’ll face issues many issues directly related to the last ten days of insecurity. Their economy has come to a screeching halt; the unrest caused the stock market to shut down as prices fell uncontrollably. Food security will also have to be addressed as the protests caused many bakeries and other food producers to close; food prices are rising globally making this issue even more exigent. Tourism, which generates significant income for Egypt, has also taken a hit as tourists from across the globe fled the unrest. As if that is not enough, they’ll have to formulate some sort of transitional government; one that will appease as many as possible and strong enough to quell those dissatisfied with its makeup. The military will have to play a part in the transition; their new role needs to be discussed ASAP. They’ll also need to reformulate their internal security apparatus seeing as the old one not only had a complete meltdown, but also turned violently against the anti-Mubarak protesters. And let’s not forget the psychological toll that will undoubtedly face many as they return to normalcy.
As Tahrir Square empties and people go back to work, these issues will have to be addressed. In the medium term, as the most immediate issues are attended to, the transitional government will most likely be questioned on their foreign policy—this includes, but is not limited to, Israel and Iran. But, a bigger internal problem will be the “pro-Mubarak” groups we saw rampaging through the streets over the last few days. Will they have a place at the table in the hopeful democracy or will they play spoilers for the rest of Egypt? Egyptians will have to think long and hard about how they view those groups and those currently working in government—pro-Mubarak or not. If the US policy of de-Baathification provides any insight, Egyptians would be wise not to completely shut out those working within the Mubarak regime—as hard as that will be.
Within the anti-Mubarak camp, the Muslim Brotherhood will have to do some serious reflection on how they want to proceed. Although, they have released many statements saying they don’t want to participate in a new government—transitional or not—some throughout the world remain unconvinced. Many believe they orchestrated the protests—a complete and fundamental misunderstanding of the situation, it must be noted. The international community is rightly worried about their outspoken criticism of Israel and their support for Hamas in Gaza. They’ll have to address these concerns as the situation moves forward. Even with their widespread internal support it may be a good idea for the Muslim Brotherhood to tone down any desires to pursue a seat in the new government; essentially lay low politically, but continue the community outreach programs.
In the long run, who knows? I’m sure new issues that will test the resolve of the burgeoning Egyptian democracy will arise. More than likely they’ll deal with internal security issues regarding groups dissatisfied with their new slice of the Egyptian pie or something dealing with Israeli-Palestinian relations. Both of which could de-rail any long-term progress. But the conviction we’ve seen from the protesters has shown they can overcome the hurdles—seen and unseen—facing them in the future.
Until that time comes, though, we have to remember two things. First, this is an Egyptian movement; there will be no Made in America stamps. The movement has to be theirs; in no other case will the people be able to overcome the obstacles they’ll face. Second, we have to temper our expectations, because democracy takes time and, in its developmental stages, can be extremely fractious.
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