Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is facing some intense pressure…and not just from the outside.
He’s enjoying all sorts of problems. First, he recently escaped an impeachment attempt. Second, the economic situation he’s facing makes ours look like a cakewalk. Lastly, international pressures surrounding the Iranian nuclear program are compounding his troubles.
Saved by the Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad has to be aware that his head is on the chopping block. While the potential for impeachment is low, the fact remains that the attempted impeachment shows he’s facing major opposition, even among his allies. Many among the political elite are losing patience with their divisive President. Additionally, his belligerent rhetoric has turned many of Iran’s allies against them. The recent UN sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear program was only possible with the help and agreement of those allies—namely China and Russia. The sanctions have put increasing pressure on those within Iran who have connections to the nuclear program. Ironically, many are the same that have sought Moody’s impeachment.
Having said that, the economy is also in tatters giving those politicians some cover for their attempted impeachment. Really, though, they aren’t fooling anyone; it’s been in tatters for a long time. The only difference is the political elite have started to feel the pinch. Combined with UN sanctions, Iran is facing near 40% unemployment (unofficial, but more likely, estimates) and rampant inflation. These problems are nothing new. After the Revolution in 1979, responding to criticism over high food prices, Khomeini famously responded, “This revolution was not about the price of watermelons.” Indicating his revolution was less practical and more about ideology. Yet, even as the prices rise, many goods remain subsidized (including gasoline and other living staples) forcing the government to spend $100 billion each year. The subsidies have now become a target for cuts. Again, nothing new. Rafsanjani and Khatami each tried—unsuccessfully—to cut subsidies, but chose against it; they decided it would be politically poisonous. We think the protests after the June 2009 elections were bad; they’d pale in comparison to what would happen if—some say when—Ahmadinejad makes cuts to the popular subsidies. Just the mere mention of cutting them sends Iranians into a frenzy.
As if talks of impeachment and the economic crisis wasn’t enough, Tuesday’s P5+1 talks add additional pressure to Moody’s administration. He has to be seen as engaging the P5+1, while also not be seen as giving in to their demands. It is a tough balancing act, which is exacerbated by the domestic situation discussed above. Going further, President Obama has been able to create a unified front among the P5+1 group. Previously, the US had had a difficult time convincing Russia and China to punish Iran for its behavior. Now, those two nations have joined the US, Britain, France and Germany in pursuing a tougher stance. I’m not hopeful of a solution during this round of negotiations, because Moody faces a tough domestic situation and he will have to be seen as standing up to the West—essentially the main tenant of the Revolution. Although, any solution requires negotiation and they have to start somewhere. Building trust is important, but Iran’s history of agreeing to something then backing off when the time comes to take action—from personal experience this is endemic in Persian culture—makes a near term solution is highly unlikely.
The internal pressure Ahamdinejad is facing will only exacerbate attempts by P5+1 to bring Iran into compliance, thus compounding the difficulty of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Iran’s economy has been in shambles since the Khomeini-ist revolution in 1979; the idea that a nuclear program will somehow help that is a pipedream. As if Pakistan and North Korea’s experience wasn’t clear enough. More inexplicable is the initiative by the far right to blame Ahmadinejad. Yes, his belligerent attitude toward the west has brought unwanted attention, but I’m not convinced he’s their problem. They’ve had issues since the beginning of their experiment with theocracy. Impeaching Ahmadinejad will do nothing, but give them a short term respite from the external pressures by the west. I’m not convinced whoever would take his place would improve their lot.
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